Fez — Early projections from sector bodies and trade press point to a national output of about 200,000 tons of olive oil, more than double last year’s drought-hit yield.
Interprofessional sources echoed by multiple outlets—including Interprolive and African Agribusiness—say favorable spring rains and orchard “resting” effects are driving the bounce back.
If weather holds through the main press runs, consumers should start to see prices easing toward 50–52 dirhams per liter as new-season oil hits store shelves.
On the ground, early transactions also point to a gentler market. In mid-September, cooperatives reported on-tree olive prices around 5–5.5 dirhams/kg—roughly half of last year’s peak—suggesting downstream relief for households as crushers ramp up.
The International Olive Council, tracking a partial global recovery in 2024/25, likewise expects pressure on record highs to cool as volumes normalize.
The upturn follows a turbulent stretch. In October 2023, Morocco limited exports to protect local supply amid severe drought and price spikes, a move widely covered at the time by international media such as Le Monde and sector outlets.
With production now rebounding, officials and producers will balance domestic affordability with renewed export ambitions.
For shoppers eyeing fresh bottles, the quality cues remain the same. Extra-virgin oils labeled to the IOC trade standard (≤ 0.8% free acidity) offer the benchmark for top grade; harvest dates (2025/26) and reputable provenance—Meknès, Ouezzane, Taounate—help signal authenticity.
Expect greener hues and peppery, bitter notes early in the season; these typically mellow over the first months after pressing. Premium single-estate or PDO oils will price above mass-market blends even in a bumpier year.
Prices, of course, hinge on execution. A strong field crop still depends on mill capacity, storage, and logistics to keep shelves supplied and costs contained. Trade briefings caution that localized bottlenecks can blunt savings—even if national aggregates look healthy. Still, with forecasts converging on a doubled output and retail targets under 52 dirhams, the headline for Moroccan households is encouraging: mills are louder, tanks are filling, and the olive oil season is finally smiling back.
