Rabat – The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to become the biggest commercial event in global sport once again, offering sportswear brands a powerful platform to boost merchandise sales, strengthen global visibility, and connect with millions of football fans.
However, historical market data suggests that on-pitch success does not necessarily translate into stock market gains.
Research from trading platform eToro shows that since 1998, only once has the kit supplier of the World Cup-winning team also been the strongest-performing stock among Nike, Adidas, and Puma.
That exception came in 2006, when Italy won the tournament wearing Puma kits.
In most cases, share performance has been driven by corporate strategy rather than football outcomes.
Puma recorded standout gains in 2002 and 2003, rising 93% and 114% respectively after a major restructuring under former CEO Jochen Zeitz.
Adidas also saw strong growth in 2015, with shares rising 62% driven by renewed demand for its Stan Smith sneaker line.
Across the past seven World Cup cycles since 1998, Nike has been the most consistent performer, delivering positive returns in every tournament year and leading overall.
However, total gains of around 32% suggest the World Cup itself has had only a limited impact on long-term stock performance.
For 2026, Nike, Adidas, and Puma will collectively supply kits for 37 of the 48 participating nations. Adidas leads with 14 teams, followed by Nike with 12 and Puma with 11.
Nike enters the tournament under pressure, with shares down 28% year-to-date and still 78% below their 2021 peak.
The company has faced flat revenue growth, weaker margins due to US tariffs, continued softness in Greater China, and a 9% drop in digital sales as it reduced discounting to protect brand positioning.
Puma has been one of the sector’s strongest performers this year, with shares up 27%. Investor sentiment has improved on signs of operational recovery and the announcement that Anta Sports intends to acquire a controlling stake.
However, Puma remains loss-making on a trailing basis, meaning its turnaround story is still in progress.
Adidas appears best positioned heading into the tournament. Shares are up around 5% year-to-date, supported by a 13% gain in May, its strongest monthly performance in nearly three years.
The company expects the World Cup could generate more than €1 billion in additional revenue, supported by sponsorship deals with 14 national teams, including Argentina and Spain.
With the tournament hosted in North America, Adidas could also benefit from stronger regional visibility and intensified competition with Nike in a key market.
First-quarter results further strengthened its outlook, with revenue up 14% driven by strong apparel demand and continued growth in its direct-to-consumer segment.
According to Josh Gilbert, Lead Analyst at eToro, World Cup exposure has historically had limited impact on stock performance, with share prices driven more by earnings, margins, and execution than tournament results.
He added that while Nike needs a catalyst for recovery, Adidas appears best positioned to benefit from the commercial opportunities of the 2026 World Cup.
